Pakistan: Four Scenarios

Pakistan: Four Scenarios

Product ID: 23308

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Author: Wilson John
Foreword/Introductio: Vikram Sood
Publisher: Pentagon Press
Year: 2008
Language: English
Pages: 89
ISBN/UPC (if available): 9788182743236


In Pakistan today, there are more questions than answers. One of the questions increasingly being asked within, and outside, is who will rule Pakistan. It is certainly not an easy question to answer. General Pervez Musharraf, in power for about eight years, has come to believe that he alone is the best hope for Pakistan. People outside the cantonments seem to have a different view. They believe that the General has over-stayed in Islamabad – and it is time for people to decide who will rule them. The problem is they hardly have a choice. The political parties countering the military rule are partisan, parochial and have a history of belying the promises of progress made at frequent intervals in the troubled six decades of Pakistan’s existence. Democracy seems a distant dream.

This work is an attempt to work around these, and other, questions facing Pakistan with the help of scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions but are, nevertheless, based on critical assessments of the changing situation in Pakistan. They provide as insight into the underlying forces impelling changes, which will have a telling impact on the future of Pakistan.

In a way, these scenarios are a bold attempt to look beyond, and between, events to study the changing matrix in a troubled region.



Editor’s Note


Scenario I

Scenario II

Scenario III

Scenario IV


1. President Pervez Musharraf
2. Inter Services Intelligence Directorate
3. Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
4. Nawaz Sharif
5. Benazir Bhutto

1. Miramshah Agreement Between the Tribal Leader
And Pakistan Government, September 4, 2006

2. President Musharraf’s address to Nation July 12, 2007

3. Pakistan: New generals on the block

4. List of Political Parties in Current Assembly
Composition of Parliament
National Assembly Elections, October 2002
Senate after February 2003 Elections
Summary of the October 2002 National Assembly Elections

5. Text of the Charter of Democracy Signed by Nawaz Sharif
And Benazir Bhutto on May 13, 2007 in London
A. Constitution Amendments
B. Code of Conduct
C. Free and Fair Elections
D. Civil-Military Relations

6. The Terrorist Threat to he US Homeland
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Estimates and the NIE Process
The US Homeland Threat Estimate: How it was Produced